Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science 30)

Probably the latest and greatest in a long series of excellent forecasting reference manuals. Only Spiros Makridakis can eaual Armstrong for reference manuals.

Throughout my career, it seemed every five years or so, I briefly strayed from risk analysis into a closely related field, such as weather reporting or stock picking, just to see what others were doing. Most recently, I won a jackpot in return for the effort. I read J.Scott Armstrong's "Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners."Risk analysis has dealt more with subjects like natural and technological disasters. Business forecasting resembled risk analysis in several ways, but over the years, enterprise and capital markets accumulated much more extensive data. Social scientists studied the process of (and procedures for) forecasting with financial data intensively. Small wonder, as poor forecasting often led to costly disasters.The authors wrote the Handbook in clear, coherent prose. It assembled 29 articles by 40 leading experts into an excellent book with 18 chapters. Armstrong, the editor (and clearly the instigator) created a hierarchical framework that described the relationships between different kinds of forecasting information, beginning with either judgmental or statistical sources. "Principles of Forecasting" illustrated this framework in an often repeated diagram.The framework contributed to a coherent structure. Each chapter described one compartment within the framework. Each had an introduction that described the limitations and uses of a source of data used by forecasters. Each article also started with an abstract. Thus, a reader could quickly survey all of forecasting by skimming through the Handbook and reading either the article abstracts or the chapter introductions.Instead of reading the text sequentially, the framework and the Handbook's structure also allowed finding a specific article (or a topic of interest within an article) quickly, yet staying oriented to the overall subject. Thus, "Principles of Forecasting" served a handy reference text. The organization and a competent index sped this application.Many articles were excellent. None were less than very good. The articles concentrated on principles within subdomains of forecasting, which the Handbook emphasized by setting the principles apart in bullet format and bold text. The articles had a common format, which included two useful implication sections, separately for practitioners and for researchers. The articles also had overall summaries, and references to the literature. The authors edited each other's articles, which imposed both high quality and consistency on the Handbook. In addition, an extensive group of outside experts reviewed the articles. This huge effort showed in both dense information content and readability of the articles.Similarly, the Handbook contained a separate and marvelous "Forecasting Dictionary" toward the end, which allowed quick reference to (and understanding of) separate ideas involved in competent forecasting. In another separate section toward the end of the Handbook, a "Forecasting Standards Checklist" gathered all of the principles from the separate articles and condensed them into a very useful guide."Principles of Forecasting" appeared comprehensive in its coverage. The authors wrote it as an explanation of a field, instead of a group of individual articles about related subjects. An introduction and a summary at the beginning and end of the book, also helped orient me to the overall subject of forecasting and to the need for principles. I thought that the Handbook reflected the consistent objective of a group of experts to interpret and explain forecasting. So, I will recommend it as a textbook for classroom use."Principles of Forecasting" is not for everyone. It is an expert text. However, for persons involved in (or hoping to become involved in) forecasting or its allied and subsidiary fields, such risk analysis or econometrics, it will prove indispensable.

The subtitle of this book, A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, too narrowly defines the audience for Armstrong's new reference. Principles of Forecasting is, in fact, an indispensable resource for managers and professionals of every ilk. Forecasting is an integral part of decisions that we make and that are made for us. To be good decision makers and citizens we owe it to ourselves and others both to make our forecasts explicit and to examine the quality of those forecasts. This book gives the guidance to ensure that best practices are followed and to judge forecast quality after the factPrinciples of Forecasting is not a book that you will find in airport bookstores. It is not a popular management title that dishes-up the latest buzzwords. On the contrary, this book will give you knowledge to examine critically the fashions and fads, as well as the received wisdom, of management. And yet, despite being a serious work, the book is a joy to read at length, or to browse. I suspect many decision makers will tend to do the latter.The Forecasting Dictionary is part of Principles of Forecasting and is a good place to start some directed browsing. For example, experienced decision makers will often rely on their intuition, even for important decisions. Is that a good idea? The Forecasting Dictionary has an entry for "intuition" that tells us, "... it is difficult to find published studies in which intuition is superior to structured judgment". Highlighted terms, such as "structured judgment" in the preceding passage, indicate that there is a separate Dictionary entry for the term. By following the highlighted terms and the references to the body of the book which are included in Dictionary entries, one can quickly pick up a useful understanding of a topic. Some entries are very detailed.Following the intuition entry to the entry on structured judgement, one finds "role playing" as an approach to imposing structure on a forecasting problem. Role-play forecasting for conflict situations happens to be an interest of mine. There is a chapter on role-playing in Principles of Forecasting that provides evidence that the outcomes of role-plays by students, and other non- representative role-players, provide accurate forecasts of decisions in real conflicts. This is counter-intuitive given that the conflicts examined involved generals, chief executives, directors, and union leaders among others. Moreover, unaided judgment tends to do poorly by comparison. This has important implications for strategy development - after all, what use is a strategy that fails to forecast accurately how other parties will behave?I keep my copy of Principles of Forecasting handy, refer to it often, and learn something new every time I do so. How many books could one say that of? A precious few. Congratulations to the authors on a unique and valuable work well executed.

The book is a collection of articles, in which 40 leading experts takes up the challenge of detailed identification principles of forecasting.Clear and logical structure, synthetic approach to the subject and the practical knowledge make manual powininen be compulsory volume in the library of every self-respecting forecaster. And not just those who deal with short-term forecasting.This textbook is a mine of practical knowledge for studetnów, practitioners and theoreticians forecasting. Special words of appreciation to the editor Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, a man with a real passion of forecasting.

A joy to read and helpful in managing forecasts. Great work and well executed by the author. A tool to definitely keep refering to in every situation.

Extremely good book. this is the result of many years work. a complete review of the field. in one word: excellent.